Wednesday, December 14, 2016

effects of a Japanese Midway

The battle of midway fought between the US and Imperial Japanese navies from the 4th to 7th of June 1942 has rightfully gone down in history as one of the greatest naval battles in history. Some even claim Midway as the most pivotal battle in history. The tale of how the United States Navy, fresh from defeat at Pearl Harbor and the Coral sea, managed to break the Japanese naval code and ambush the four best carriers in the IJN, sending all of them to the bottom for the loss of only the previously damaged carrier Yorktown. It was the beginning of the end for Japan. Rising losses in men, ships and aircraft soon overran the empires limited abilities to replace. Leading to increasingly inexperienced and untested men facing off against the excellent USN. Three years after the battle Imperial Japan surrendered to the US aboard the battleship Missouri. Ending the most devastating war in human history.

But did it have to be like this? There are many ways Japan could have turned Midway into just another in a string of victories over the Americans. The Japanese carriers could have found the Americans first, they could have had more fighters aboard to beat off the American attacks. The list goes on and on. The US as well could have done things differently, or been far less lucky. They might not have broken Japans codes, could have been caught in a storm. Yorktown, already damaged could well have suffered some catastrophe. The list goes on and on.

How it happened is not important however (lets say Japans codes were not broken and the Yorktown was unfit to see action leading to the smaller carrier Wasp being substituted for her) but what is important however is that somehow Japan pulls a victory out of Midway. Sinking all three American carriers and a fair portion of their surface escort. Say two cruisers and a quartet of destroyers. Japanese losses meanwhile are very light. Say zero carriers or cruisers lost and a pair of destroyers being the only casualties on the Imperial side. This leaves the USN with only one real carrier in the Pacific and shattered morale. Japan meanwhile is buoyed by their success however and prepares for further operations against the USA.

What next for Japan? Well for starters it is very likely that a victorious IJN would intend to continue its ultimate plan of invading Hawaii, Fiji and Samoa. Fiji and Samoa would likely be quite easy targets. The British, which owned them, had not heavily defended the islands before the war. There was none of the airfields, fortifications or troops that Hawaii held. Plus both islands lacked the massive naval bases that Pearl Harbor did. The islands would probably fall easily to Japanese troops.
Hawaii was a totally different story however. Even before the Japanese attacks the island held extensive defenses. Following the attack however it could be said that Hawaii had become an american redoubt in the pacific. The island bristled with AA guns, Anti-ship guns, machine gun pillboxes and flame thrower pill boxes. The island was defended by a very capable series of airfields, each with at least a squadron of fighters. That was not mentioning the troops stationed in the island. Hawaii would be a very tough nut to crack. 
But could they do it? Assuming that they could take out the garrison at Midway and establish a real blockade of the Hawaiian islands then yes. Probably they could over time take the islands. Afterall the islands already needed regular shipments of food to feed its population. If those shipments were suddenly stopped then perhaps the people would surrender to stop their suffering. Not that it would work but perhaps they could be convinced to...

Following the theoretical capture of Hawaii then Japan would move onto the second part of their war plans. That of negotiating with the United States for an end of the war. You see Japanese planners had never meant for a long war with the US. Rather they planned to quickly destroy the American fleet and take Hawaii. Unable to continue to fight it was hoped that America would give up and end the war. But would the USA have been willing to end the war after receiving such a brutal beating? 

Following a loss at Midway the United States Navy would be left with just two carriers (The badly damaged Yorktown and the Saratoga) neither of these ships would be likely to be deployed on independent missions. Or even leave the dock for some months. Furthermore the Yorktown would likely still be at Pearl Harbor when the Japanese began their blockade. Thus bringing US carrier strength down to a single carrier. It would be most of a year before new carriers of the Essex class would arrive to turn the tide. By that time Japan would likely hold a total of at least eight carriers, probably more. It would still take some time before the US would be able to achieve parity with Japan, let alone superiority. 
Furthermore by this time the morale of the American troops stationed in the Pacific would be very low. Japan would be viewed as nearly invincible, unbeatable and dominant. Any troops stationed in Hawaii, with no possibility of support or relief, would likely lead to a very dispirited and halfhearted defense of the islands.  

But would even the loss of Hawaii lead to the US considering any peace proposals? That is not something that is so easy to anticipate. Afterall Americans are stubborn people that often choose to ignore facts staring them in the face. Thus it is possible that the US might stay in the war and wait until new carriers were launched to defeat the IJN. If this was the case then the Japanese would loose. They could not destroy every American carrier with no losses. And it would be far easier for the US to replace losses than for Japan. Even though the US would likely win the war would likely drag on until at least 1946, probably 47. The Japanese would have ample time to fortify and defend their island possessions. Thus racking up American casualties as they attempted to take back the islands. 

That is to say nothing of the death toll in China with a Japan defeated in 46 or 47. Even in our time line Japan still killed nearly four million, even more would likely die by the time the US won. And who knows who would emerge victorious from the raging Chinese civil war?

Friday, December 9, 2016

Most extreme practical joke ever.

Recently YouTube has become filled with videos of people playing practical jokes upon one another. Some are amazing. Others, well lets say they have a hilarity deficiency and that the posters need to try harder next time.The one thing these videos all have in common is that they are recent. Posted within the twelve or so years. So that must mean that the idea of a practical joke is quite modern right? Or, judging from the amount, a field dominated by Americans who post more videos than any other nationality. However a little bit of internet research brings up a very different story. First off practical jokes have been around far, far longer than the new millennium. Most likely for as long as man has possessed the things necessary to make a scary mask. And secondly the United States, even with its large population of restless teens, cannot compete with, nor even compete in the same ballpark as the British.
Most practical jokes involve a few people, perhaps an entire family. They are also quite often spur of the moment events. Carried out when someone saw an opurtunity. However compared to the amount of people, planning, preparation and just plain old balls it took to pull off the great Tottenham caper you shall soon see why Britain is in a field all its own when it comes to practical jokes.

It was 1809. The Napoleonic wars were in full swing. London, the largest city on the planet, was abuzz with soldiers, sailors, tailors, Nobility, clergy and other assorted professions. Among them the peculiar breed of person known as an author. In fact London had quite a few authors. So many that they could meet one another at various coffee houses and cafes scattered throughout the city.
On the day in question two authors by the names of Theodore Hook and Samuel Beazley where in just such a establishment when the two struck up a bet. Hook bet his friend that in one weeks time he could make any house in the city (And there were alot of them) the most talked about residence in the entire city of London. Beazley accepted and the house chosen was 54 Berners street, inhabited by the widow Mrs Tottenham. The house worked well because across the street was another abode which was for rent. Meaning Hook and Beazley could watch as it all came together. 
By the 27th of November it had all come together and the two authors sat by the window of their rented house as a chimney sweep came to Mrs Tottenhams door. He said that he was ready to sweep her chimneys as she had wrote about (Sweeping chimneys being the primary occupation of the chimney sweep at this time) he said that he could get right to work as soon as he was shown the chimneys. A confused Mrs Tottenham told the man that she had never written about requiring a sweep and sent him along on his way. She had no sooner closed the door as a further twelve sweeps arrived wanting to know why so many had been called. Soon after several coal delivery men arrived with wagons of coal. Since she had not ordered either sweeps or coal they were all turned away as well.
Now thoroughly confused Mrs Tottenham sat down and began to ready. Several minutes later there was another rap upon the door. Now feeling a mixture of trepidation and indignation she answered the door. She found waiting for her several wagons full of furniture, delivery boys bearing a coffin meant for her and several wedding cakes and twenty five hundred tarts (raspberry, the best kind) again she said that she had not ordered any such things, especially the coffin, and sent them on their way.
Over the afternoon other arrived. Doctors, lawyers, priests, wig makers, cooks, and various salesmen. All plying very large quantities of their wares stating Mrs Tottenham had placed orders with them. Soon the street became filled with people all trying to find 54 Berners street. Towards midday twelve grand pianos and chamber organ arrived. Greatly contributing to the general clutter of the street.  
As the day wore on several important dignitaries began arriving. Men such as the Mayor of London, chairman of the honorable British East India company, and the Governor of the Bank of England. All calling on Mrs Tottenham stating that she had asked them there. At one point even the Duke of York and the Archbishop of Canterbury arrived wishing to call on the now thoroughly frazzled Mrs Tottenham.
By evening the streets had become impassable. With coffins, cakes, pianos, Dukes and tarts making it impossible to make your way along the thoroughfare. From the window of the house they had rented Hooks and Beazley spent considerably time on the floor laughing. When the day was over the two parted company, Beazley supposedly paying his friend a Guinea. 
The next day 54 Berners was indeed the most talked about house in all of London. And no one knew who had done it. It was only later that Hook would admit being responsible. He even explained how he had pulled it off. He had written a total of around four thousand letters to various businesses, dignitaries and performers. All in Mrs Tottenhams name requesting that these people appear at her house. He seems to have been very convincing judging from the results. The newspapers were filled with accounts and comics of the day and for weeks all anyone could talk about was 54 Berners.

So then. Try to top this joke people.